Tearing Up the Tax Guarantee Is Risky

September 03, 2021

All the papers are full of speculation that the government is going to announce a 1% hike in national insurance or a new “social care levy” to get round the clear guarantee the Tories gave less than 2 years ago that they would not raise any taxes. A guarantee personally signed off by the Prime Minister…

There seems to be a depressing consensus across the political spectrum that tax hikes are necessary. The only party opposed is the Reform Party, currently polling at 4%. They are taking a low tax, high growth position on the economy in direct contrast to the Tories’ new-found higher taxes and higher spending stance. If Richard Tice can capitalise on the issue, it could boost his support and breathe life into the stalling party – which frankly hasn’t had much traction post-Brexit.

Tory wonks will argue that there is polling support for their tax and spend policies, and that the Reform Party’s policies don’t add up. That doesn’t necessarily matter; the party could still garner votes from traditional Tories, particularly in the South East, who are fed up of hearing about spending in the Red Wall seats and in Scotland, paid for by their taxes. Tearing up the guarantee is not cost-free electorally.