Followers

Irish Central Bank Warns of 100,000 Jobs Lost if No Deal

The Central Bank of Ireland has sounded off about potential ‘cliff-edge’ risks in the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit:

“The main outstanding source of risk to financial stability in Ireland stems from a worse-than-expected macroeconomic shock. This could arise if the expected negative impact through trade channels is compounded by a sharp increase in uncertainty and a fall in confidence, with knock-on effects to Irish employment, incomes and investment. Ireland’s relatively acute exposure to Brexit may also negatively alter investor sentiment towards Irish assets, with adverse implications for financing conditions of an already relatively indebted private sector. Given the extent of direct and indirect exposures, this would result in unanticipated losses for the domestic financial system.”

The Central Bank forecasts that in a No Deal scenario Irish economic output could be approximately 6% lower in 2020. In the understated language of central bankers they warn of

“… severe financial market dislocation and have potential knock-on effects for financial stability in Ireland. Negative income shocks arising from a disorderly Brexit scenario would present challenges to the private sector in Ireland, and the domestic banking system from which they have borrowed .Despite recent delevering and balance sheet repair, the Irish non-financial sectors remain heavily indebted. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income ranks fifth highest within the EU and slightly above the OCED average,while a small pocket of SMEs still carry high debt levels. Irish retail banks remain the most important source of external financing for households and SMEs. The exposure of the Irish banking system to SMEs is significant vis-à-vis sectors that would be most affected by a disorderly Brexit, such as agriculture (Primary Industries), manufacturing, retail trade and tourism (Hotels & Restaurants). In addition, one quarter of Irish banks’ credit exposures are directly to borrowers in the UK, predominantly to the household and corporate sectors, (62% and 31% of UK exposures, respectively), creating a direct source of risk from a disorderly Brexit.”

Yesterday’s third quarterly report report from the bank predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast in the event of no deal. The Irish workforce is only two and a quarter million – one fifteenth the size of the UK. This would be like the UK losing 1.5 million jobs, almost 5% of the workforce…

icb

The Irish business community is getting uneasy and going to start demanding politicians get real and show some flexibility over the backstop. The Irish economy is at full capacity with GDP growth forecast to come in at a scorching 4.9% this year, this would plunge to 0.7% next year in the event of no deal…

The post Irish Central Bank Warns of 100,000 Jobs Lost if No Deal appeared first on Guido Fawkes.



* This article was originally published here

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Politicians are wrong about what the public want

Image
So the, out of touch political elite are trying to say that the public would be happy to cough up an extra £2000 a year, per household to prop up the NHS?  Advertisers website Wrong! While many British families struggle to make ends meet, the political elite thinks that people will be glad to fund a failing business that is being run into the ground because of their failed policies on how the NHS is managed? No. This just shows that we have monkeys running our country! Many people on Facebook have shared the above post on various pages; a large number of those people don't even do politics. If our political elite were more than just yes men weighed down by the chains of political correctness, they would see that the people of Britain have had enough.  Ever increasing taxation to try and fix their mistakes?  Continuiosly using the NHS as a stick to beat the opposition or a classic party political paper dragon! (Paper Dragon): a politician or political party who   campaign to fox t
Read more

Federal Suit Hits Soros for $10 Billion for ‘Political Meddling, Motivated Solely by Malice’

Image
Billionaire globalist and altogether controversial figure, George Soros, is now the subject of a $10 billion lawsuit accusing him of being a “racketeer billionaire” for meddling in the affairs of a sovereign African nation — purely for personal reasons — in what critics say typifies his modus operandi. See what others are saying about Soros and who he is in the comments section below. FOX News reports the 86-year-old financier and manager of a global network of nonprofits will be forced by BSG Resources’ lawsuit to answer for manipulating the politics and economics of Guinea for his own benefit Despite Soros’ often contentious dealings and reputation as a pompous busybody, the filing in New York Federal Court has thus far largely escaped the spotlight. Soros, who controls a web of international nonprofits in addition to his vast financial empire, used his sway with the government of Guinea to freeze Israeli company BSG Resources out of the West African nation’s lucrative iron ore mini
Read more

Furious Brussels tells EU states to ignore UK as huge trade deal erupts

Image
A new row has broken out about post-Brexit red tape. * read the full article here Donate to Brexit News<,/b> it won't cost you a penny. Click on any ad that appears on this page and we get paid a few pence by Google. You could consider that it a small donation to keeping Brexit News free. Clicking on the ads and visiting those websites costs nothing. Please enjoy our content and remember to go back to Brexit News on Facebook to discuss this article.
Read more